The Convexity Report

A laboratory notebook for counting what others don't think to count.

In the spirit of Victor Niederhoffer's pattern archaeology and Richard Feynman's experimental joy, we document the hidden physics of markets and companies. We are (in the words of Nassim Taleb) statistical flâneurs walking through B2B trenches, market microstructures, and Bach's fugal architectures - finding patterns where domains unexpectedly converge.

What emerges: Conference call word clouds that predict quarterly surprises. Why companies that mention "AI" 47 times inevitably disappoint. The beautiful mathematics explaining why some companies compound while others merely burn. . The peculiar tendency of Friday afternoon Bitcoin pumps.

Sometimes pure quantitative beauty - Mathematica models revealing market structure. Other times, exploring why curiosity compounds differently than capital.

This isn't consulting or thought leadership. It's rigorous observation and pattern testing from someone who's worked in structured finance on Wall Street and built revenue engines in Series A trenches. Every pattern verified against reality. The failures catalogued alongside victories.

We build models to satisfy our curiosity and broaden our appreciation of the world: “Count everything that can be counted, then find what others forgot to count.” - Victor Niederhoffer

Where Soros saw reflexivity - markets creating the reality they predict - we see opportunity. Patterns have a funny way of working until they don't, and studying them gives us the humility to know the difference.